Not an alarmist, but the notion of a limited attack on NATO as part of Putin’s end-game is more credible than many think.
Biggest mistake you can make in war is assuming your enemy thinks like you and wants the same things you do. Most rational thinkers understand NATO vs. Russia would be short, nasty affair that Russia would lose badly. At least on a military basis.
But if you’re Putin - you already have fallen short of your goals and want to salvage something other than total conquest of Ukraine. Formally annexing Belarus and fragmenting NATO is MAYBE a prize that the average Russian would accept, or at least keep them from calling for Putin’s head.
What does that mean? Poland is too strong, you can’t get to Romania, thus the Baltics are the obvious target. Small, right on your border, has water access, and Trump would no doubt refuse to honor Article 5 based on their limited stature. The military outcome is perhaps irrelevant to the real prize - punching NATO’s fringes in the face, having a muddled response and thus showing Article 5 to just be words on a page. Even if you don’t capture the Baltics, and lose militarily, if NATO doesn’t respond overwhelmingly, then he might consider that a victory in itself.
Hell - invading NATO countries and watching the U.S. thrash and get even further divided over their lack of response is probably at least as valuable as any slice of Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia. And they very well could be thinking that an isolationist stance over a ‘far-off’ war in the Baltics is perfect ammo to energize struggling Trump’s base for midterms.
The risk:reward is suprisingly high for Russia, in a world where they’ve painted themselves into a corner surrounded by bad choices. Trump’s likely to be weakened significantly in the midterms. All of their options suck - but the circumstances to get SOMETHING they can point to as a win will probably never be better than it is now. A last, insane move primarily for the sake of damaging NATO & US unity. They could possibly take that back to the Russian nationlist crowd as a minor consolation prize for getting their asses handed to them by inferior little ukraine.
Trump is their last best hope, and he may never be more useful than he is while he still controls the GOP majorities. It’s easy and fun to dunk on Russia’s struggles - but that only increases the chance that they do something even more desperate and crazy, like invade the Baltics. It’s not that unlikely, big picture. Thoughts?
Yeah, well. Putin also considered Ukraine an easy target, too. So, I think we can safely conclude that Putin doesn’t know shit.
Dangerous to underestimate him, or expect that he will take his SMO lessons and act in a more restrained manner. He has always historically escalated things rather than scaling back. Assessing him as not knowing shit might mean the risk of another stupid invasion is MORE rather than less likely.
It doesn’t matter if by a random chance you have to be the target though.
It’s okay: If putin wants to stretch his forces thinner, the war will end sooner. It’s one of the mistakes hitler made. When you fight multiple nations at once, it becomes impossible to win. Not to mention, every nation adds allies against the attacker. Go ahead, putin. Make my day.
You’re thinking about it in terms of a probable military outcome. I think almost all serious minded people expect that this would result in russia getting their heads kicked in. Quickly.
But what I’m suggesting is a brief, murky invasion into the Baltics where the actual military outcome is irrelevant. Yes, they’ll lose. But they’re losing now. We already know that Russia doesn’t give a shit about their losses. The goal of such an invasion isn’t to win - it’s purely to have Trump play his last part in declining to get invovled, and therefore causing a theoretical crisis within NATO about the sanctity of Article 5, and cause more chaos inside the U.S. itself.
And for the record - I don’t think that would have the impact Russia wants. I think some European states would act unilaterally, especially Finland, Poland and maybe Romania. All those states bordering Russia or it’s proxies have much more skin in the game of keeping russia where they are instead of waiting for them to be cheek-to-cheek with their territory.
Russia hopes this is a NATO-breaking move. But frankly, I think everyone in NATO leadership understands what Trump is, and that he will never honor an Article 5 call. But - that they have plans to act without him, and will look to repair the historic NATO relationship after he croaks. Trying to get Trump to honor any commitment is like shooting rubber bands at the stars.
True - but you’re thinking logically and as though he wants to objectively win militarily. As in, invade and take & hold ground.
I’m suggesting a scenario where the goal isn’t to seize the baltics, but rather to just prove that Trump won’t honor Article 5 and therefore trigger a crisis within NATO & the U.S. and call that a victory. Even though all of Trump’s shittiness is likely to be walked back under future presidencies, the damage that such a move can do to NATO & America in the limited window they have to be assured Trump won’t intervene to help an ally might be a basis for a worthwhile offramp for the war. They could delude themselves into saying “we proved America is a bad ally and eroded NATO unity”. As in, hoping that substitues for the fact that they have achieved nothing in Ukraine and made a permanent, capable enemy on their borders.
The USA aren’t NATO. Everyone in NATO knows you can’t rely on the USA as the strongest member any more. The rest of NATO will figure something out and send troops, etc… It’s okay. Let putin come at us. We’re not in top form yet, but we can pack a punch.
Putin and every dipshit on his side also believed Ukraine to fall in 3 days. The entire russian nation is collectively getting buttpummeled since day one.
russia can start that attack, yes. And it will run into a Polish fist, roll over, cry and die.
No doubt. Poland is a non-starter not least of which because of Poland’s strength, but that it would endanger Kaliningrad and even Belarus. If they DID invade anywhere in the Baltics though, Poland might unilaterally provide military support even if the rest of NATO wavers. And what hasn’t really been considered much either is the Finnish response. The Finns have a more truculent and sober view of the threat. It’s not crazy to consider that in case of a Baltic invasion, both Finland and Poland might decide to unilaterally exceed whatever response NATO decided on. The threat to them is MUCH more immediate than it is to the rest of the alliance. I don’t think the current state of the Russian Army could handle fighting EITHER the Finns or Poles in addition to Ukraine. Dangerous time.
Man, I remember reading, back when Russia first rolled into into Ukraine, that Finland was almost excited. Finland already had their border with Russia well defended and they started mining bridges.
Europe would liberate Georgia and push to Rostov, ending the Ukraine war. Even Russia can’t fight on 3 fronts.
Interesting war gaming. How would they get to Georgia? I don’t see Turkey or Armenia allowing a ground invasion thorugh their territory, and a naval invasion from the Black Sea seems like a non-starter. Also - Rostov would mean in invasion of sovreign russian territory. That’s a pretty big matzo ball right there. Think it’s more likely that eurpoe sinks a bunch of the Baltic fleet and starts flying patrols for a no-fly zone/drone interception before they start thinking about an actual invasion of Russia.
Proxy. The French have been there for years and last week there was an statement from the British, French and Germans reasserting the the two occupied territories are Georgian sovereign territory and Russia should withdraw. It’s preparatory work.
It’s ironic that the article warns from the dangers of thinking your enemy thinks like you and then follows with the risk of invasion.
Pootin doesn’t need to invade the strong Poland or the weak Baltics. All they need is to heavily invest into fascists in those countries, create a migrant crisis or ten, sit back and watch how the Europe crumbles.
And the best part? They’ve been doing this for a while now.
No doubt. Frankly, corrosive corruption is what they do the absolute best - way better than their actual warfighting capabilities. That’s an expensive game to keep all those stooges feeding at the trough though. In past decades, that corruption project was fueled by energy revenues. Russia ain’t got quite the same bankroll going forward that they used to have. Will be interesting to see if they can fund their global stooge network on a re-adjusted oil & gas exports baseline.
For a similar scenario I can’t recommend enough the book “If Russia wins: a scenario” by Carlo Masala. Even if it starts from the premise of Russia winning the war (a less likely outcome now then back when the book was written), the Baltic provocation and NATOs muddied response can still be true unfortunately.
A limited Russian attack against another nearby target is not unlikely, I agree, and would further weaken Russia the same that the Iran invasion has dramatically weakened the USA.
Russia can’t afford any more “special 3 day military operations”. Putin ain’t doing shit for years to come lol
You’re absolutely right if the goal is to “win” by seizing & holding territory. I’m suggesting that that ship has sailed, and they might consider an alternative to victory where they invade the Baltics, and the military outcome doens’t matter. The damage to American & NATO unity is enough of a spoiler goal given their other options. Just packing up and admitting that the mere, inferior little brother Ukrainians kicked their ass is non-starter for the Russians. They need another story, even if it’s completely delusional. “Yes, we lost, but only to the full might of NATO” is a story that just might fly. Certainly Russians have never had a problem getting onboard to a wide collective lie to salvage their undeserved pride before.
This is a very likely scenario but it comes with the cost of exposing the weakness of Russian war machine to all NATO members, actually to the whole world. One step forward, two steps back as the case may be
I posted a week ago when reports of US munitions shortages due to them blowing their wad at Iran, intelligence chatter of Russia looking to invade possibly Poland or Estonia and how they might be directly related to a longer-term plan…
Rumors are floating that Russia is toying with making a move on Poland, or perhaps a smaller NATO member. One theory is they’re just posturing to detract from the situation with Ukraine and appear strong. Despite this, Ukraine relies heavily on assistance from EU/NATO countries for supplies/money. Even mildly credible threats may force some of those countries to scale back some assistance and focus on internal efforts, which impacts Ukraine’s supply chain.
How does this tie in with the US? If a NATO country is attacked and goes Article 5…the US might try to use this (precision munitions shortages) as an excuse for lack of significant aid (and a possible excuse to pull out of NATO)
I can’t see them doing anything to Poland, as it’s the strongest country they could possibly choose to mess with, and it would require a massive build up thorugh Belarus that would be easy to spot. Estonia seems the softest target, they hold grudges and would like to flex on Kaja Kallas if they felt they could get away with it.
Likesay - the military outcome of a test of NATO is almost irrelevant - the victory would be to show that article 5 doesn’t really exist if you’re not one of the big members. I expect there would be a European response independent of however the US weaseled it’s way out of a committed response, though.
We keep talking about what ‘the US’ would do, when people really mean what Trump would do. Trump is special, he’s clearly a russian asset and once he dies, it seems highly likely that whatever follows won’t be as personally invested in the russian corruption project. That’s frankly what makes me think it’s likely that the russians try some fuckery sooner than people think - Trump is their once-in-a-millenia prize and his window to help them is closing, maybe as soon as the midterm elections in the states.
European NATO leaders aren’t morons. They probably know a lot more of the specifics of how Trump works for the Russians more then average muggle does, and have prepared responses ready independent of the United States.
and have prepared responses ready independent of the United States.
Oh that part is already a known fact. When that orange turd somehow sleezed his way back into the white house, several EU Nations were already tightening their alliances with each other and ramping up their own military because they saw the writing on the wall
Well, given the fact that NATO countries are currently too busy with rerouting their underwater cables to please the idiots, that old bald dickhead might not be very wrong in his ambitions…
