

Before the war just one friend of mine switched. After the start, virtually every one did.
To your direct question, ruZZia occupied 1% of territory from the beginning of the full invasion. No big cities, iirc. So a lot of people affected, but not a lot a lot to introduce statistical change if that scale.
If anything, ruZZia already lost and Ukraine already won this war simply because ruZZia could not (and will not. Yes Ukrainians are tired, but their army and the support from EU is much better that at the beginning, while ruZZian situation is the exact opposite) achieve any of its goals from 3 years ago.
So the question is not whether there’s a win scenario for Ukraine, but how bad ruZZia will lose.