Not an alarmist, but the notion of a limited attack on NATO as part of Putin’s end-game is more credible than many think.
Biggest mistake you can make in war is assuming your enemy thinks like you and wants the same things you do. Most rational thinkers understand NATO vs. Russia would be short, nasty affair that Russia would lose badly. At least on a military basis.
But if you’re Putin - you already have fallen short of your goals and want to salvage something other than total conquest of Ukraine. Formally annexing Belarus and fragmenting NATO is MAYBE a prize that the average Russian would accept, or at least keep them from calling for Putin’s head.
What does that mean? Poland is too strong, you can’t get to Romania, thus the Baltics are the obvious target. Small, right on your border, has water access, and Trump would no doubt refuse to honor Article 5 based on their limited stature. The military outcome is perhaps irrelevant to the real prize - punching NATO’s fringes in the face, having a muddled response and thus showing Article 5 to just be words on a page. Even if you don’t capture the Baltics, and lose militarily, if NATO doesn’t respond overwhelmingly, then he might consider that a victory in itself.
Hell - invading NATO countries and watching the U.S. thrash and get even further divided over their lack of response is probably at least as valuable as any slice of Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia. And they very well could be thinking that an isolationist stance over a ‘far-off’ war in the Baltics is perfect ammo to energize struggling Trump’s base for midterms.
The risk:reward is suprisingly high for Russia, in a world where they’ve painted themselves into a corner surrounded by bad choices. Trump’s likely to be weakened significantly in the midterms. All of their options suck - but the circumstances to get SOMETHING they can point to as a win will probably never be better than it is now. A last, insane move primarily for the sake of damaging NATO & US unity. They could possibly take that back to the Russian nationlist crowd as a minor consolation prize for getting their asses handed to them by inferior little ukraine.
Trump is their last best hope, and he may never be more useful than he is while he still controls the GOP majorities. It’s easy and fun to dunk on Russia’s struggles - but that only increases the chance that they do something even more desperate and crazy, like invade the Baltics. It’s not that unlikely, big picture. Thoughts?
It’s ironic that the article warns from the dangers of thinking your enemy thinks like you and then follows with the risk of invasion.
Pootin doesn’t need to invade the strong Poland or the weak Baltics. All they need is to heavily invest into fascists in those countries, create a migrant crisis or ten, sit back and watch how the Europe crumbles.
And the best part? They’ve been doing this for a while now.
No doubt. Frankly, corrosive corruption is what they do the absolute best - way better than their actual warfighting capabilities. That’s an expensive game to keep all those stooges feeding at the trough though. In past decades, that corruption project was fueled by energy revenues. Russia ain’t got quite the same bankroll going forward that they used to have. Will be interesting to see if they can fund their global stooge network on a re-adjusted oil & gas exports baseline.