Who is winning?
Since the launch of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the information space around the war has been obsessed with this deceptively simple question, and the constant new iterations of answers to it.
In the hands of those fighting the narrative war, from officials on both sides, online cheerleaders, armchair generals, and a certain world leader who likes to talk about who has the cards, the answers differ radically, but all are delivered with consistent venom, emotion, and
I don’t know what you think that this is supposed to prove, because it doesn’t prove anything.
The proof is in what you have done, by posting what you have. And you are judged by us seeing the absurd things you post and say in contradiction to the mountains of evidence to the contrary.
Now show a similar photos with a military id, lol. (fyi camo on the background is ММ-25, and the costume itself is штурм-1 iirc which are very recent and won’t be in any ai training materials)
Anyway, what I was trying to explain in my first post that you dismissed as pro-m*scovian propaganda, is that 1) most ‘analysts’ operate from very far away and with very limited and often public information. 2) m*scovites are dangerous and inhuman to their own 3) they are adapting very well to drone warfare and have a lot of resources put into this war. (examples where they are far ahead of anyone including us are: visual odometry and non-gnss positioning systems, fiberoptics fpv drones, crpa/anti-spoofing gnss antennas)
It’s very simple to say meh they are dumb fucks that are going into meatcube, they are, but not all of them. There are sadly plenty of very well trained people and smart engineers. There are “judgement day” pilots and “rubicon” for example and “rubicon” now has like 10 of drone pilot schools, and they train decent pilots by hundreds every month.
m*scovia isn’t struggling, they aren’t losing ground every week, they don’t actually feel the war, it’s not even funny when news report that they are losing and soon there is going to be peace. At best we get another ten years before another war in such scenario.
Yeah why on Earth would anyone want to pretend to be Ukrainian and sow distrust and criticism.
It’s not like Russians ever do that. Like Davel@lemmy.ml for instance, a pure born and bred American who just happens to spout things like “reality has a well-known Russian propaganda bias” among others. It’s not like Russians would just go online and tell lies, right. Right…?
You should try reading Sun Tzu, swell guy, for his time, he explained in plain terms things like: you should supply your army, it’s better not to go into obvious trap, etc., among other things there are statements about not dismissing abilities of your enemy. I do get it that you aren’t in military and probably really far away from this war, so any news that you get are extremely biased in the direction of “soon this conflict will end and everything will return to how it was”. Anyway, yes, we are in strategic offence, in no way does it make this our win. There is a single win condition for Ukraine as a nation - collapse of the fucking empire, and nobody will allow this. It will be preserved in some way.
Win condition for m*scovia is essentially obtained, proles will gladly eat whatever, biggest cities are alright - nobody cares about some siberian or whatever natives dying. And we are under constant pressure to not hurt the enemy too much under threat of witholding help.
Reality holds a realpolitik bias, so we are being supported just enough so we won’t fail too fast but not enough to win in any meaningful way (cue kherson offensive plans leaking out and blocked by unpredictable chain of events that slowed down material supplies, zaporizzha offence being stopped and other funny stories).
And, yes, criticizm is normal, our president is a strongman-pussy and we should have made not nukes, god forbid, it’s alien technology unubtainable with modern technology, but at least our own artillery gunpowder plants, our own shells made by millions a month, other things that don’t require alien technology from the last hundred years in some measurable quantities and not in the last year or so (supposedly).
Ask yourself why is it that units themselves manufacture Blyskavka/Molniya/Lightning drones for example. They cost less than $500 apiece, can fly up to 50 km with tank mines, making one requires close to zero technical knowledge, any workshop can make them by hundreds every month. And we are using our own money, and limited time, and limited resources to make them.
So yeah, I think there are plenty of reasons to view our efforts as half-assed at best and treasonous at worst, when facing an enemy that has tens of millions of people in reserve and aren’t afraid to use them.
Oh you’re actually trying to reason that Davel is actually American?
Hilarious. Is it you again, Davel? I wouldn’t be surprised, most of the Ruskis have dozens of alts.
The win condition for Ukraine is “hold on until the world laughs at the pathetic Ruskis so much they collapse inward”
Thanks for the essay, Vanja.
Or are you seriously trying to pretend to be a high military strategist while implicitly pretending that Russian disinfo doesn’t exist? I’ll grant that sometimes Russia is good at spy craft, but your ineptitude to accept reality for what it is always ends up fucking you right in the chulo.
I have no idea who davel is, I’m not a high military strategist, average guy conscripted into military, before that I worked in IT.
What you describe isn’t a win condition, it’s a cope that will prolong this war for another round and we probably will collapse by the end of this round. I’ve moved out of occupation twice, this war goes for most of my adult life (last 12 years). Sorry if I’m a bit less optimistic about m*scovia collapsing soon due to devastating whatever, that surely will work this time. Only real deterrent is nukes - a lot of them, but our only plant that can easily give us usable nuclear device in a months is closed. Because Chernobyl scary.
You’re not coping at all, right? You’re not demanding and arguing that you’re definitely provably factually a Ukrainian whilst posting “evidence” with a fucking googled photo of a passport.
So youre denying that Russia has an online presence where they pretend to be from other countries? You’re actually denying that while pretending to be a military genius? :Ddd
You what? Where did you find “googled photo of a passport”? I’ve literally made a photo of military id with Ukrainian camo pattern (ММ-25 - 25 here means year it’s sorta multicam but with different colors, became standard codified pattern) pants made in 2026 lying on the floor, if you can google it I’ll eat my hat.
I’m not denying that m*scovites has online presence and that they use direct propaganda, inderct approaches, FUD and a lot of other psychological methods, in which message did I deny such a thing? Stop trying to argue with voices in your head and read what I’ve actually written.
I’ve never even pretended being a military expert, I’ve literally written it in another reply. Stop looking for your online friends in every account, I don’t know nor read a single post from soviet glorifying instances since year or more that I’ve found out how vile they actually are and not just pretend commies.
I’ve never even pretended being a military expert, I’ve literally written it in another reply
What would you call quoting basics of Sun Tsu with the implication that I must not be aware of this arcane book on war?
Stop looking for your online friends in every account, I d
Oh so you can’t read, huh? When is the previous one where I asked someone if they’re X or Y? Can’t see any in my comment history.
See, it’s really not hard to answer basic questions. Or are you pretending that making sure you’re not actively talking to someone who’s at least directly opposed to the subject.
I don’t know what you think that this is supposed to prove, because it doesn’t prove anything.
The proof is in what you have done, by posting what you have. And you are judged by us seeing the absurd things you post and say in contradiction to the mountains of evidence to the contrary.
Now show a similar photos with a military id, lol. (fyi camo on the background is ММ-25, and the costume itself is штурм-1 iirc which are very recent and won’t be in any ai training materials)
Anyway, what I was trying to explain in my first post that you dismissed as pro-m*scovian propaganda, is that 1) most ‘analysts’ operate from very far away and with very limited and often public information. 2) m*scovites are dangerous and inhuman to their own 3) they are adapting very well to drone warfare and have a lot of resources put into this war. (examples where they are far ahead of anyone including us are: visual odometry and non-gnss positioning systems, fiberoptics fpv drones, crpa/anti-spoofing gnss antennas) It’s very simple to say meh they are dumb fucks that are going into meatcube, they are, but not all of them. There are sadly plenty of very well trained people and smart engineers. There are “judgement day” pilots and “rubicon” for example and “rubicon” now has like 10 of drone pilot schools, and they train decent pilots by hundreds every month.
m*scovia isn’t struggling, they aren’t losing ground every week, they don’t actually feel the war, it’s not even funny when news report that they are losing and soon there is going to be peace. At best we get another ten years before another war in such scenario.
as soon as you do the same 💋
of course! because it’s propaganda!
every info source says otherwise. that Zalinky even says the Patriot Day parade can go on! What pride you must have!
lol
Шановні. Глибокий вдих і видих. До перемоги ще далеко і багато роботи. Дуже багато. Але шанс є і він вимагає працювати гуртом.
Really long three day operation huh
Yeah why on Earth would anyone want to pretend to be Ukrainian and sow distrust and criticism.
It’s not like Russians ever do that. Like Davel@lemmy.ml for instance, a pure born and bred American who just happens to spout things like “reality has a well-known Russian propaganda bias” among others. It’s not like Russians would just go online and tell lies, right. Right…?
You should try reading Sun Tzu, swell guy, for his time, he explained in plain terms things like: you should supply your army, it’s better not to go into obvious trap, etc., among other things there are statements about not dismissing abilities of your enemy. I do get it that you aren’t in military and probably really far away from this war, so any news that you get are extremely biased in the direction of “soon this conflict will end and everything will return to how it was”. Anyway, yes, we are in strategic offence, in no way does it make this our win. There is a single win condition for Ukraine as a nation - collapse of the fucking empire, and nobody will allow this. It will be preserved in some way. Win condition for m*scovia is essentially obtained, proles will gladly eat whatever, biggest cities are alright - nobody cares about some siberian or whatever natives dying. And we are under constant pressure to not hurt the enemy too much under threat of witholding help.
Reality holds a realpolitik bias, so we are being supported just enough so we won’t fail too fast but not enough to win in any meaningful way (cue kherson offensive plans leaking out and blocked by unpredictable chain of events that slowed down material supplies, zaporizzha offence being stopped and other funny stories).
And, yes, criticizm is normal, our president is a strongman-pussy and we should have made
not nukes, god forbid, it’s alien technology unubtainable with modern technology, butat least our own artillery gunpowder plants, our own shells made by millions a month, other things that don’t require alien technology from the last hundred years in some measurable quantities and not in the last year or so (supposedly).Ask yourself why is it that units themselves manufacture Blyskavka/Molniya/Lightning drones for example. They cost less than $500 apiece, can fly up to 50 km with tank mines, making one requires close to zero technical knowledge, any workshop can make them by hundreds every month. And we are using our own money, and limited time, and limited resources to make them. So yeah, I think there are plenty of reasons to view our efforts as half-assed at best and treasonous at worst, when facing an enemy that has tens of millions of people in reserve and aren’t afraid to use them.
Oh you’re actually trying to reason that Davel is actually American?
Hilarious. Is it you again, Davel? I wouldn’t be surprised, most of the Ruskis have dozens of alts.
The win condition for Ukraine is “hold on until the world laughs at the pathetic Ruskis so much they collapse inward”
Thanks for the essay, Vanja.
Or are you seriously trying to pretend to be a high military strategist while implicitly pretending that Russian disinfo doesn’t exist? I’ll grant that sometimes Russia is good at spy craft, but your ineptitude to accept reality for what it is always ends up fucking you right in the chulo.
I have no idea who davel is, I’m not a high military strategist, average guy conscripted into military, before that I worked in IT. What you describe isn’t a win condition, it’s a cope that will prolong this war for another round and we probably will collapse by the end of this round. I’ve moved out of occupation twice, this war goes for most of my adult life (last 12 years). Sorry if I’m a bit less optimistic about m*scovia collapsing soon due to devastating whatever, that surely will work this time. Only real deterrent is nukes - a lot of them, but our only plant that can easily give us usable nuclear device in a months is closed. Because Chernobyl scary.
Okay buddy
You’re not coping at all, right? You’re not demanding and arguing that you’re definitely provably factually a Ukrainian whilst posting “evidence” with a fucking googled photo of a passport.
So youre denying that Russia has an online presence where they pretend to be from other countries? You’re actually denying that while pretending to be a military genius? :Ddd
You what? Where did you find “googled photo of a passport”? I’ve literally made a photo of military id with Ukrainian camo pattern (ММ-25 - 25 here means year it’s sorta multicam but with different colors, became standard codified pattern) pants made in 2026 lying on the floor, if you can google it I’ll eat my hat.
I’m not denying that m*scovites has online presence and that they use direct propaganda, inderct approaches, FUD and a lot of other psychological methods, in which message did I deny such a thing? Stop trying to argue with voices in your head and read what I’ve actually written.
I’ve never even pretended being a military expert, I’ve literally written it in another reply. Stop looking for your online friends in every account, I don’t know nor read a single post from soviet glorifying instances since year or more that I’ve found out how vile they actually are and not just pretend commies.
What would you call quoting basics of Sun Tsu with the implication that I must not be aware of this arcane book on war?
Oh so you can’t read, huh? When is the previous one where I asked someone if they’re X or Y? Can’t see any in my comment history.
See, it’s really not hard to answer basic questions. Or are you pretending that making sure you’re not actively talking to someone who’s at least directly opposed to the subject.
Kinda reminds me of this short.
https://youtube.com/shorts/szqXppELItw
Is it outrageous for him to ask that?
Same with Russians on Lemmy.