Air Force spokesperson says Ukraine’s air defenses are struggling to counter Russian ballistic missiles, as attacks from multiple directions make it harder for Patriot systems to track and intercept incoming threats.
I forget my source (perhaps a recent Perun yt video), but the interception rate change is due to changes in Russian missile trajectory in the terminal phase.
Previously, Russian missiles followed an arc trajectory to hit their target and were comparatively easy to intercept because it’s path until reaching it’s target was predictable (an arc).
Now, Russian missiles follow an arc toward target A and then when they are over target B (real target) they enter a steep dive to hit target B.
Hopefully that was understandable and helpful.
Edit: changed potential source as a new Perun video came out today, and it’s not my source.
That’s more or less partially repeating the article on why missiles are more difficult to intercept, but it isn’t providing the actual numbers to examine. Given that Russia has modified missiles and is firing larger barrages to overwhelm defense systems, the nuance with numbers is important.
If 10 interceptor missiles are fired with an expected hit rate of 9/10, how much do the modified Russian missiles affect that? Does it drop to say, 8/10 or 3/10. The actual numbers are very important to figure out what to prioritize in defense between upgrading systems or deploying more of existing systems.
Previously Ukraine was intercepting 30%ish of missiles with Patriots which historically have a 90%+ interception rate. I don’t think the drop in interception can be entirely laid on modification to Russian missiles but also to the increase in firing and use of barrages. The interaction between all the variables is important.
I see what your saying better now and agree interaction of variables is important.
I believe there is a graph that has number of drones and missiles fired by Russia and the Ukrainian interception rate of those missiles. My recollection is that the number of missiles fired varies quite a bit month to month, but that inception rate took a nose dive recently.
I don’t think Russian missile barrages are the cause of the interceptor hit rate change, but do not have any source to back that up.
In my view, that would either be due to the missile trajectory upgrade or if Ukraine ran out of interceptor missiles. I do not know if they are out of interceptor missiles or have changed their firing rate.
I forget my source (perhaps a recent Perun yt video), but the interception rate change is due to changes in Russian missile trajectory in the terminal phase.
Previously, Russian missiles followed an arc trajectory to hit their target and were comparatively easy to intercept because it’s path until reaching it’s target was predictable (an arc).
Now, Russian missiles follow an arc toward target A and then when they are over target B (real target) they enter a steep dive to hit target B.
Hopefully that was understandable and helpful.
Edit: changed potential source as a new Perun video came out today, and it’s not my source.
That’s more or less partially repeating the article on why missiles are more difficult to intercept, but it isn’t providing the actual numbers to examine. Given that Russia has modified missiles and is firing larger barrages to overwhelm defense systems, the nuance with numbers is important.
If 10 interceptor missiles are fired with an expected hit rate of 9/10, how much do the modified Russian missiles affect that? Does it drop to say, 8/10 or 3/10. The actual numbers are very important to figure out what to prioritize in defense between upgrading systems or deploying more of existing systems.
Previously Ukraine was intercepting 30%ish of missiles with Patriots which historically have a 90%+ interception rate. I don’t think the drop in interception can be entirely laid on modification to Russian missiles but also to the increase in firing and use of barrages. The interaction between all the variables is important.
I see what your saying better now and agree interaction of variables is important.
I believe there is a graph that has number of drones and missiles fired by Russia and the Ukrainian interception rate of those missiles. My recollection is that the number of missiles fired varies quite a bit month to month, but that inception rate took a nose dive recently.
I don’t think Russian missile barrages are the cause of the interceptor hit rate change, but do not have any source to back that up.
In my view, that would either be due to the missile trajectory upgrade or if Ukraine ran out of interceptor missiles. I do not know if they are out of interceptor missiles or have changed their firing rate.
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