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Cake day: June 15th, 2023

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  • SSTF@lemmy.worldtoUkraine@sopuli.xyz*Permanently Deleted*
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    10 months ago

    That’s more or less partially repeating the article on why missiles are more difficult to intercept, but it isn’t providing the actual numbers to examine. Given that Russia has modified missiles and is firing larger barrages to overwhelm defense systems, the nuance with numbers is important.

    If 10 interceptor missiles are fired with an expected hit rate of 9/10, how much do the modified Russian missiles affect that? Does it drop to say, 8/10 or 3/10. The actual numbers are very important to figure out what to prioritize in defense between upgrading systems or deploying more of existing systems.

    Previously Ukraine was intercepting 30%ish of missiles with Patriots which historically have a 90%+ interception rate. I don’t think the drop in interception can be entirely laid on modification to Russian missiles but also to the increase in firing and use of barrages. The interaction between all the variables is important.


  • SSTF@lemmy.worldtoUkraine@sopuli.xyz*Permanently Deleted*
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    10 months ago

    I’d like a better breakdown on numbers to know if the Patriot’s inception missiles themselves are missing when they are fired, or if the problem is more on Russia firing many more missiles.

    Other articles only address the total interception stats dropping rather than stats of the Patriot batteries themselves. I know the total interception rate has gone from mid 30% numbers to around 6%.

    I think looking at a breakdown is an important nuance because it shows if the Patriot systems themselves need to be upgraded, or if there just need to be more of the existing systems deployed. I know the spokesperson said the modified Russian missiles are more difficult to intercept, but what does “more difficult” translate to in the percent of fired interception missiles that successfully connect? Is that a 5% drop or a 35% drop for the interception missiles actually fired?

    Given that Ukraine is looking to the US for more Patriots, I suspect the systems themselves are acceptable but there just aren’t enough deployed to provide enough coverage.

    This is all curiosity from a public sideline, as I’m sure that privately the ordnance experts have these numbers and details on interceptions to do better breakdowns.