New findings in Bayesian tragedy

The inspection is being led by the chief prosecutor of Termini Imerese, Angelo Vittorio Cavallo. According to Italian news outlets, the technical and investigative team is evaluating whether the crew underestimated the rapidly worsening weather conditions and whether the measures taken to weather the storm were adequate.

The Bayesian went down in the early hours of 19 August 2024 near Porticello, close to Palermo, while at anchor. The tragedy claimed seven lives, including British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch, his daughter Hannah, ship’s cook Recaldo Thomas, Morgan Stanley International chair Jonathan Bloomer and his wife Judy, and attorney Chris Morvillo and his wife Neda.

The yacht’s captain, James Cutfield, along with crew members Tim Eaton and Matthew Griffith, are under investigation.

time to update our priors

https://www.fastcompany.com/91562297/daters-say-ai-dependence-gives-them-the-ick h/t naked capitalism

Younger daters are especially likely to view AI reliance as a red flag. While 56% of Millennial respondents said they wouldn’t date someone who uses AI regularly, that figure rose to 64% among Gen Z.

More than half of Gen Z daters surveyed said they’d consider it a dealbreaker if someone used AI for career advice or spending decisions, compared with 46% and 44% of Millennials, respectively.

? the kids are alright ?

I’ll yes-and you, Ukraine faces higher costs also, ie https://dronexl.co/2026/05/11/ukraine-fiber-optic-spool-price-ai-data-center-demand/

now serving with Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, said in a May 10 post on X that his unit used to buy 50-kilometer fiber optic spools for $300. Today, he said, “it’s easily $2,500.”

China makes money on both sides, plus the data centers you mentioned. Compare/contrast with Iran, who switched from GPS to Chinese nav to also get around jamming because leashes don’t get that long… and China also makes money.

But locally, my BIL who runs fiber for a rural ISP, says basically they still make way more on recycling the copper wire they pull out than they pay for fiber. IDK.

The op-ed https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/17/opinion/ai-dangerous-openai-anthropic.html

Newport I mostly know for pretty mid lifehack / business books for the Tim Ferris crowd, pre-pandemic. “Doom trolling” does have a better ring to it than “critihype.” Maybe he was holding his tongue until he got tenure or something.

gwern:

I’ve been browsing /r/LessWrong for many years, due to having toggled on ‘subscribe’ and never quite getting around to leaving. I will be leaving shortly, but before I do:

I think this subreddit has gotten so bad over the years it should be shut down or rebooted with a new set of moderators.

https://www.reddit.com/r/LessWrong/comments/1uabnlx/proposal_shut_down_rlesswrong/

lol

a coworker set up an argument, almost a syllogism, I can’t quite fill it in, maybe yall can

1. enshitification
2. shit rolls down hill
3. therefore: ?

I was flipping through this month’s magazine on the bus, don’t worry, they have a solution for reviewers…

https://cacm.acm.org/research/from-volunteerism-to-duty-reforming-peer-review-with-tokens/

:(

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/coquinn_saw-a-guy-watering-his-lawn-this-morning-share-7469886051847766016-rhHD/

Saw a guy watering his lawn this morning. Just standing there, hose in hand, dumping potable water onto grass that exists for no reason other than to be looked at and complained about.

Sir. Do you understand that a single hyperscale data center can drink millions of gallons a year keeping GPUs from cooking themselves while they generate a poem about a sad robot? That water has a HIGHER calling. That water could be evaporating off a cooling tower in service of someone’s RAG pipeline that returns the wrong answer with tremendous confidence.

And here you are. Hydrating Kentucky bluegrass. In a region where the grass was never supposed to grow in the first place.

I asked him if his lawn had an SLA. He said no. I asked what his lawn’s uptime commitment was. He looked at me like I was the unreasonable one. Meanwhile that turf is sitting at four nines of being green and producing exactly zero tokens per second.

We are pouring concrete across three states to host inference workloads, and this man is allocating municipal water to a crabgrass cluster with no monetization strategy. No usage-based billing. Not even a freemium tier.

Anyway I reported him to nobody, because there’s no one to report him to, which is honestly the most damning part of this entire ecosystem.

Touch grass, they said. He did. Look where it got us.

NOT EVEN A FREEMIUM TIER. that got me.

see also the old ludicity snowflake post https://ludic.mataroa.blog/blog/i-accidentally-saved-half-a-million-dollars/ and everything by corey quinn LastWeekinAWS.com - there’s like this learned helplessness in corporate america IT (perhaps Graeber is right and more budget validates your self importance even if it’s wasted cloud spend), or they think its monopoly money or something. or, both.

https://stackoverflow.com/questions/79948695/how-can-i-avoid-using-llms-as-a-software-developer

For me, the ideal usage case for LLMs are not prompts like “write this app” or “write this functionality” which indeed will often wreck havoc, but instead write simple functions. Sure, I can implement a matrix multiplication algorithm or search for optimised versions of it, but so can the LLM in a matter of seconds.

Please, just fucking don’t, BLAS and sparse pack and the netlib exists for a reason. Matrix multiply only sounds simple to you because you don’t actually care that much. The last thing anyone wants or needs is to start a new job and have to debug your awful regurgitated Numerical Recipes In C, incorrectly ported to python, AT SCALE.

My old job had a last minute investor call - “startpage is benefiting significantly from AIO backlash” did not expect that and pretty mixed feelings. Like yeah AIO is bad but don’t run into the open arms of the long tail adtech industrial complex marketing monetization engine either :|

https://lbpost.com/news/education/california-state-university-renews-controversial-systemwide-contract-with-openai

A CSU spokesperson confirmed to EdSource on Wednesday that the university will pay $13 million a year for three years to provide systemwide access to its more than 470,000 students and 63,000 faculty and staff. The previous 18-month subscription cost $17 million and expires at the end of June.

Are we so locked in we’re going to put up with a 10% price hike? Couldn’t be bothered to get a new vendor with a better deal, or use the Google one they are also paying for, or just use the free one? This is where the tuition increases are going, this is how we want to spend our taxes? :(

Holy Empire of AI - Predictive History

Once you have the AI state, you now have the technocracy and the world will be perfect.

All right? Does it make sense you guys? What he’s saying here? This is an amazing paragraph written 40, 50 years ago.

So, I’m not saying he’s a Freemason. I’m not saying he’s part of a society, but, he sure thinks like a Freemason.

Zbigniew Brzezinski has been dead for nearly a decade, but sure, let’s play the hits. plus AI! /s

Jiang hadn’t popped up in my feed in a while, guess he’s still at it. At least he’s reading Karen Hao, maybe some viewers follow his cites. He really should just write a Dan Brown novel or something, he’s obviously capable enough at lore dumping.

Iran has created an Insurance Company to guarantee safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Vessels pay their Insurance Premiums in Bitcoin

https://x.com/IranObserver0/status/2055716544596922700 via naked capitalism

this is fine

No one is stopping any one from editing out jar jar, if they care that much, just do it. Put up or shut up. /s

AI is Hungry for Power and You Are Footing the Bill - Naked Capitalsim

Money spent on grid upgrades and tax breaks tied to them means fewer resources for things people actually need, like schools, public transit, local infrastructure, or basic community services that make life more affordable and stable.

Even if you’ve never touched an AI model in your life, you’re going to pony up for it.

I usually think of it as Pivot : All In :: Ted Turner : Rupert Murdoch. Hoping he can grow out of his Bill Maher phase, but at least he’s been pretty generous to my dumb State U in the meantime. And if he wants to rack up listeners/ad dollars by doing chatgpt boycotts, by all means.

Galloway closes with a pretty strong sneer: Apocalypse No

AI’s popularity is correlated to wealth, with only those earning more than $200,000 per year viewing AI as a net positive. That’s not a reflection on AI, but yet another signal that the incumbents (the old and the wealthy) have successfully hoarded opportunity. In other words, the AI jobs freak-out is the latest act in America’s ongoing wealth inequality drama. The Gini coefficient is how economists measure inequality: Zero indicates everyone has exactly the same wealth; a score of 1.0 means one individual owns everything. In the U.S., we’re higher than 0.8 — about the level seen when the French began separating people from their heads. The real disruption won’t come from AI, but from the public watching arsonists sell smoke detectors and call it innovation.

The AI job apocalypse isn’t an economic forecast — it’s a marketing strategy. We’re not witnessing the end of work. We’re watching the monetization of fear.

Seems like he’s getting back to his pre-crypto / we-wtf style. But when did podcasters start charging $53 (EDIT: $86.50 for floor) / seat at the Wiltern, that place is huge. And no Swisher either, it’s his other one.

Not sure if this was posted in prev weeks, just popped on my youtube: purdue cs240 situation is crazy

So several hundred students drop Intro to C after being accused of cheating with AI.

OK so that is like normal at my state U, but the whole part where the chair does a little press conference, quasi-reinstates everyone, blocks the student newspaper from attending, and then some students sneak in and live stream it anyway is pretty comical. And then forcing the prof to file the academic charges forms one-at-a-time takes it into wtf territory.

Haven’t seen it mentioned elsewhere, not that I really went looking for it though. I’m just thankful to be out of higher ed.

Note that this is the same school that will require AI as a gen ed iirc.

I asked someone from the mainland, she more or less agreed with you:

This is basically consistent with the long-standing logic of the Chinese internet: technology brings discursive power, and to give it away is to give away discursive power. AI is especially so.