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Cake day: June 27th, 2023

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  • Based on the observation that air defense over central Moscow was increased leading up to the parade I somewhat doubt Ukraine would have been able to put a long range strike drone over the parade. Also with less coverage over other parts of Russia due to the diversions it would probably be better to send them elsewhere anyway. The alternative: risking Ukrainian intelligence assets to sneak in close range FPV drones feels like a waste. Ukraine probably could have got something in it just feels like it wouldn’t be worth it.

    The parade permit made Putin look helpless without actually needing to risk anything better used on strategic targets.