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Cake day: March 22nd, 2024

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  • Parasitic Disruption is a great name for the overall structure. I think another way of framing it in economic terms would be to talk about the opportunity cost of innovation. Even if we take hucksters and monorail salesmen out of the picture (which is exceptionally generous steelmanning imo) we’re looking at the fact that the “disruptive” option has a whole lot of unknowns on the cost side of the sheet in terms of timeline, monetary costs, downsides and tradeoffs, etc. The upsides are also unknown, but are usually assumed to be “perfectly solves the problem”. On the other hand, the boring, well-understood option is going to have very specific answers to those questions. That skews the discussion strongly against actually doing anything, and creates a lot of room for the aforementioned grifters to work.

    I think this framing also gives us some tools to fight back. You can easily turn those unknowns into horror stories of boondoggles past, and focus on the major advantage of being able to start today. The opposite of state-of-the-art is rarely “unusably antiquated” and the cost of leaving the problem - be it energy independence, mass rapid transit, or whatever - unsolved and festering is something we can push.













  • This is a fascinating case study in the democracy vs technocrat debate, where the educated, well-paid consultant class is too far up their own ideological asshole to recognize that their GenAI chatbot doesn’t work as advertised, and that lack of sanity is poisoning the well and killing discussions over how to use the power of machine learning well. But rather than back off the chatbot, even just to “let it cook” (read: let Saltman and friends continue to play with it in arenas that don’t have geopolitically relevant stakes) they’re doubling down to make this a pure messaging issue which I expect is only going to make the problem worse. Like, people aren’t unaware of GenAI at this point, and education on prompting it right is just a distraction from the fundamental problem.