Interesting (if true) - Economist is in the major leagues in terms of reliability. There is a “They”, and it’s probably the intelligence services. And the actual method would probably be less dignified than a hanging.
Not only is there a “they”, but it says Putin is entirely self-aware about the situation, and that he understands that he is personally accountable for this war.
This isn’t an optimistic post - frankly the grim truth has always seemed that this industrial murder festival will go on as long as he does. Russia of the last hundred years has been essentially a crime syndicate. To say he’s a Tsar kind of misses the point - the REAL power is the intelligence servies, and the Tsar-proxy is kind of a figurehead.
If he said this, it’s very telling. He knows the war is going badly, he knows his life is personally depenent on the outcome, he fears “they”, he wants to live and he doesn’t know what to do. Seems highly likely he’ll conitnue to escalate until…? Russian history suggests that when things don’t go well, they purge the leader and put all the blame on him in retirement. Don’t think Putin will get the “Kruschev Dacha Retirement” package - he’s done WAY too much damage.
Hopefully “They” are paying attention too, and are getting tired of the lack of progress.
Russia needs the baltic sea for oil and now grain transport. Nato countries not bordering russia can stop that traffic completely. That might impact russian calculations towards provocation rather than outright invasion.
To a lesser degree article 5 tests might be affected by nuclear proliferation fears. Poland mostly but Sweden and Finland too. Together they are capable, if not currently willing. Russia’s brutality in Ukraine makes it quite nasty to think about fighting them in our own territory
That’s a very good point. With collective confidence in the reliability of a U.S. nuclear umbrella shaking more than Lizzo in a pickup truck on rough road, an unintended effect of Russian aggression to the Baltics includes the threats to russian shipping. But also - an IMMEDIATE rush of middle powers seeking their own nuke capabilities. Since America is no longer trustworthy, countries like germany, poland, sweden, canada and italy might quickly decide that they need these weapons too.
RE: your point about Sweden and Finland’s calculus about when it’s right to apply force independent of NATO commitments - I’d throw the eastern vanguard Poland and Romania into that camp as well. You’re right, if Russian aggression seems inevitable, then it’s preferable to fight them in someone else’s back yard before it reaches your own. I think it’s highly likely that all of these eastern NATO countries start to consider lending their air assets to a no-fly zone over Ukraine, for example. And maybe sink a few ships of the Baltic fleet to let Russia know that they aren’t going to wait for Russia to choose when the Northern Front of this war begins.