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Cake day: June 30th, 2025

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  • I honestly don’t think this will change the reality of the situation. Ukraine won’t agree, Europe won’t agree. I think we’re headed for a frozen conflict where Russia claims and controls parts of Eastern Ukraine, but only a few countries recognise the region as being part of Russia.

    Ukraine would need to be able to launch a major offensive to dislodge the Russians from Ukraine entirely, and I don’t see that happening anytime soon. As much as we want them to withdraw from Ukraine, it’s quite clear they have no intentions of doing so. They’re just going to sit tight.