Probably a combination of that and Russia finally starting to run out of meat. They’ve been missing their recruiting goals for the last several months. Russia will have to start using general mobilization soon, something they have been very reluctant to do. This is probably why they are finally starting to move forward on ceasefire talks.

Bradley is surprisingly good considering all the “Pentagon Wars” development hell. I think a lot of people still think its junk. When it was more effective than the Abrams in Iraq the theory was that the fighting there mostly didn’t require tanks. In Ukraine of course, the fighting was very mechanized in the beginning until equipment losses and drones ended it.

And the Bradley still did very well, better than the MBTs. At this point I think it’s reasonable to wonder if MBTs are obsolete, if not all tanks. A lightly-armored vehicle like a Bradley is going to be no more vulnerable against modern MANPATS and drones than a MBT, but it’s going to provide just as effective protection against small arms. It’s easier to maintain, longer range, and it can do more missions.

Europeans can’t even organize an embargo

I think the goal with the Javelins was to try to fool the sensor making it think that the vehicle was taller than it is, causing the missile to fly too high, in top-down attack mode.

Not even this dirtbag likes Elon.

I dunno how much I buy that. America’s been going fasc for most of my adult life. Under Bush we had the patriot act, “enhanced interrogation,” “extraordinary rendition,” etc. Sure we didn’t have masked brownshirts pulling people off the streets (of America) yet but everyone could see where it was all going and people were incredibly upset.

The Putin and Xi-loving tankie seems to be an artifact of the internet. It’s the meme-internet trajectory of “haha” to “ha ha only serious” to “seriously.” It’s a way to revel in the base pleasures of the malevolent thug without having to be Pro-trump, Pro-America or Zionist.

That’s the funniest thing. Like, if you were an original Hungary-era tankie, at least you could say “the Soviet Union is the leader of the worldwide Communist movement, I believe what the SU says about itself.” But Putin’s Russia is explicitly not Communist or Socialist in any way. Putin’s ideology is inconsistent but his public statements are all basically imperial or “blood and soil” nationalism. How do they twist this guy into being a “comrade?”

Hexbear tankies really are something incredible. I’ve been around left-wing politics most of my life and in the real world I’ve met like one or two people actually like them. Difficult to understand where they all came from. I’m thinking maybe it’s a r/Pyongyang where it started as a joke and then they started taking it seriously.

I think this is a good sign at least that Ukraine has successfully stabilized the front and Putin sees no opportunities for advance. This was not something that was on the table this winter.

Musk is switching sides in this war because he needs his puppet to get a win.

There even isn’t much panic about being caught on the street to be conscripted

Because Russia hasn’t mobilized besides the “partial mobilization” in 2022. The question is why. One theory is that they don’t need to. The other theory is that they can’t. I live in the US and remember the Iraq war. In 2004 one of the biggest things going around was that Bush was going to start conscription.

But if he were to have attempted mobilization the support for the war in the US would have instantly collapsed so instead he tried various things to fill the ranks like using mercenaries, “backdoor drafts” via stoploss, activating national guard, etc. And in the end, let’s be honest, the US lost both of Bush’s wars.

It’s easy to look at the side of a war of attrition where you have more information and say that they’re losing because you don’t have as much information on the other side. Russia has every reason to present itself as still having massive reserves to call upon because it helps their case.

Many people thought that Germany was on the cusp of winning WWI during the spring offensive in 1918.

That being said I think Ukraine’s situation isn’t great. I was surprised at the seeming depth of the Russia’s reserves. They have been sustaining incredible losses for the last year almost, and yet continue to advance. During previous phases of the war we saw them overextend themselves and then have to retreat against Ukrainian advances.

Russia’s reserves are finite both in terms of manpower and equipment. They are demonstrating strain in both categories and will presumably start to have sustainment issues soon. If Ukraine can hold together and stop the advance then presumably the next phase would be a negotiated peace hopefully. There’s always a chance that some shoe could drop though. Putin could die or get overthrown, the west could withdraw all support, China could start providing blank-check support to Russia, Russia could successfully go into full-mobilization mode.

I guess this is the purpose of pulling in North Korean troops.

Russia could theoretically do another mobilization, but the last “partial mobilization” went poorly politically and they seem reticent enough to do another that it may not be politically possible.

Wasn’t he literally on the Russian payroll? Cashing checks from gazprom.

Really not true. Minutes were taken during meetings where these decisions were made and it’s possible to see what people actually were thinking and saying rather than speculating.

That being said, the firebombing of Dresden was absolutely as a warning to the Soviets. The RAF put out a memo saying that they “want to show the Soviets what Bomber Command can do.”

They tried to shoot blind and got their hands wounded.

I saw this as the supposed plan:

per WSJ: It may propose delaying Ukraine’s NATO membership for 20 years, establishing a 1,200 km demilitarized zone along the current front line, and leaving 20% of occupied Ukrainian territory under Russian control—while the U.S. would continue arms support under these conditions.

The problem is, this isn’t an acceptable plan according to Russia. Russia has insisted that:

1. Ukraine retreats from all of the oblasts that are currently partially occupied by Russia (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson) as well as giving up claims to Crimea, and Russia takes ownership of everything without a fight
2. Ukraine’s army is demobilized and Ukraine is demilitarized
3. Ukraine is banned from joining any international organization, not just NATO (so no EU for instance)
4. Ukraine receives no more military aid fro the west.

Trump is going to find out that you can’t unilaterally declare peace.