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Cake day: 2023년 7월 2일

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  • They had a massive segment of military goods for sale. Everything from drone supplies to body armor. So they are actively engaged in supporting the Russians invasion.

    These are also massive warehouse hubs for the distribution of all sorts of goods. Like a large Amazon warehouse. Destroying them is an absolutely massive hit to the Russian economy with minimal risk of civilian casualties.








  • If these people are buying the goods internationally they usually have to pay for them before they are shipped. For most businesses that means taking out a short term loan to cover the purchase. It’s a standard practice even in established businesses.

    Lenders require insurance against the destruction of the goods. Insurance companies like to carve out exemptions in what they cover to minimize their losses. Acts of war are almost universally exempted unless the customer pays a much higher premium.

    I expect to see online retailers in Russia ban the sale of military goods on the next few weeks. Insurance companies and lenders are going to increase the insurance premiums and refuse loans to operations that sell them.





  • The Sea of Azov is the shallowest sea in the world. In fact it’s deepest part is only 14m. The Don River empties into the Azov sea. The Volga-Don canal connects the Volga and the Caspian sea with the sea of Azov. The maximum ship size across the canal is 141m with a draft of 3.5m. The Caspian sea region has a ton of oil production.

    Russia has a fleet of smaller tankers to move oil, grain etc out of the region. These are 140m long and around 7000 metric tons with a draft of 3.5m.

    These are about 1/2 the size as the smallest general purpose tanker in use internationally. These small tankers travel from the Don River across the Azov Sea. They then transfer their loads into larger tankers in the black sea or holding tanks in the area.

    Because of their relatively small size Russia has built a ton of them. Look at Rostov-on-Don on a satellite view. They are packed into the Don River.





  • Russia had an absolute massive stockpile of air defense assets at the beginning of the war. Ukraine has steadily worked at degrading these assets over time. The more they destroyed the easier it was to destroy the next asset.

    At the same time Ukraine has massively increased it’s drone capabilities and numbers at every range. So the remaining Russian air defense has to work harder with less numbers against more drones.

    The longer ranges of Ukraines drones also means that Russia has to defend more area with less equipment. Russia is forced to prioritize assets to protect.

    Today Moscow has a robust air defense system but whole sections of the front have close to zero. Ukraine has total freedom to hit any target they can find in many regions.

    Russia is seeking to figure out a cheap effective way to defend their airspace. At the same time Ukraine is relentlessly damaging the infrastructure Russia needs to build the new anti-air capabilities.