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Cake day: December 6th, 2023

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  • The timeline is thus, geopolitical-1st, then climate, after:

    late-2026, Trump goes full-dictatorship to prevent loss-of-power, accountability, etc.

    You know how he’s pushing coal, & paying billions to prevent renewable-energy?

    Multiply that by 1000x

    Regional Consolidation Time, 2026-2033, Trump rampages the Americas, “Russia” ( China supplanting Russia in gov’t & industry, but Russian oligarchs get to pretend, so long as they grind-down Europe ), China on Asia ( because the West abandoned Asia ), & MBS, post-Netanyahu, consolidates the entire Middle-East & Africa.

    “US” & “Russia” implode in 2033.

    WAR, 2033 to +4-decades or so, the Chinese Empire doing all it can to break & destroy the competitor, the remnant-of-the-West.

    IF that is survived, THEN … I expect total-marine-food-web-colapse.


    Ecologically & climate…

    Global-warming accelerating still, until sometime in the … WAR years.

    Much of California, Texas, Saudi Arabia, India, northern Africa, become uninhabitable some time after 2030.

    It will help snuff India’s fight against China.

    The increased savagery of the cyclonic-storms will make some coasts become wreckage.

    The increased flooding & sea-level-rise will trash some of the North Atlantic.

    AMOC shutting off will wreck Europe’s we-can-grow-food-here regions.

    That will help “Russia” in grinding-down Europe.

    etc.

    Amusingly, there is also the geomagnetic-pole-flip that has begun…

    Oh, what happens when it happens?

    Well, our Van Allen belts, which protect satellites from raw-solar-wind, … disappear.

    AND it renders compasses useless, simultaneously…

    Oh, well that means that navigation’s … fucked … right?

    Yep.

    Perhaps you’re seeing a trend happening here…

    Perfect Storm.

    Perfect meshing of all the different dimension of this coming karma, so it has maximal effect.

    That’s what we’re in-for.

    _ /\ _








  • Screentime ITSELF in some studies has been proven to have both cognitive & mental-health consequences.

    Here, however, is some rather solid research, which doesn’t support banning all online-socialization-for-youngsters, but DOES back the 2h-or-less/day limit:

    ( yes, I asked an LLM for this, because it actually helps.

    ANY hallucinated-source, CALL IT OUT!!

    but ignoring/denying actual-help is ludditeism, not effectiveness.

    Automation does improve effectiveness, as aviation proved, a thousandfold, through commercial-aviation’s safety-record )


    The consensus among global health organizations typically centers on a 2-hour daily limit for recreational screen time for school-aged children, while recent large-scale research has highlighted significant risks—sometimes described as a “cliff” in academic and cognitive performance—when usage exceeds 5 hours.

    1. The 2-Hour Limit: Trustworthy Sources

    The 2-hour guideline is the gold standard for “sedentary recreational” screen time (excluding schoolwork) and is supported by several major health authorities:

    • World Health Organization (WHO): While the WHO primarily focuses on very young children (recommending no more than 1 hour for ages 2–4), its broader framework for physical activity and sedentary behavior in children ages 5–17 emphasizes minimizing sedentary time, often citing the 2-hour recreational limit as a protective threshold (Priftis & Panagiotakos, 2023).
    • Canadian 24-Hour Movement Guidelines: This is arguably the most specific source for school-aged kids. It recommends that children and youth (ages 5–17) limit sedentary recreational screen time to no more than 2 hours per day to optimize health outcomes (Hulick, n.d.).
    • American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP): The AAP previously used a strict 2-hour limit but has shifted toward a more flexible “Family Media Use Plan.” However, it continues to emphasize that recreational screens should not displace the 8–12 hours of sleep and 1 hour of physical activity required daily (Aldhilan, 2026; Cowan, 2018).

    2. The “5-Hour Cliff” and Performance Deterioration

    The “2-sigma” (standard deviation) deterioration you mentioned is often linked to research by social psychologist Jonathan Haidt and Jean Twenge. Their work tracks a “dose-response” relationship where mental health and cognitive outcomes drop significantly once daily usage crosses the 4-to-5-hour mark.

    • Dose-Response Effect: Meta-analyses show that while low levels of screen use (1–2 hours) may have negligible or even slightly positive “Goldilocks” effects, outcomes for adolescents who use screens for 5+ hours per day show a sharp decline. Haidt has noted that these effect sizes (r = .20) in large population studies are comparable to the negative impact of lead exposure on IQ (Krumsvik, 2023).
    • Academic and Cognitive Impact: In recent longitudinal studies, excessive screen time (often defined as >4–5 hours) was associated with lower scores in information processing speed, working memory, and attention (Shalash, 2024). Specifically, a study on the “Canadian 24-Hour Movement Guidelines” found that kids who exceeded the 2-hour limit and met none of the physical activity/sleep guidelines showed the most significant cognitive deficits (Hulick, n.d.).
    • A “2-Sigma” Drop? In statistical terms, a 2-sigma (2 standard deviations) drop is massive (roughly equivalent to 30 IQ points). While common recreational use might not trigger a 2-sigma drop for every individual, the cumulative group effect on social-emotional wellbeing and “heavy user” status (7+ hours) is frequently cited by researchers like Haidt as a public health crisis comparable to significant historical pediatric risks (Krumsvik, 2023).

    References

    Aldhilan, D. (2026). Digital tools and screen time management in early childhood education: parents’ and educators’ perspectives. Frontiers in Education. https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/education/articles/10.3389/feduc.2026.1742813/full Cited by: 1

    Cowan, J. (2018). Help Families Find a Screen Time Balance. The ASHA Leader. https://leader.pubs.asha.org/2018/02/26/help-families-find-a-screen-time-balance/ Cited by: 1

    Hulick, K. (n.d.). Healthy screen time is one challenge of distance learning. Science News Explores. https://www.snexplores.org/article/healthy-screen-time-is-one-challenge-of-distance-learning Cited by: 6

    Krumsvik, R. J. (2023). Screenagers, social media, screen time, and mental (ill) health. Scandinavian University Press. https://www.scup.com/doi/10.18261/njdl.18.2.1 Cited by: 9

    Priftis, N., & Panagiotakos, D. (2023). Screen Time and Its Health Consequences in Children and Adolescents. Children, 10(10), 1665. https://doi.org/10.3390/children10101665 Cited by: 173

    Shalash, R. J. (2024). Night Screen Time is Associated with Cognitive Function in Healthy Young Adults: A Cross-Sectional Study. Journal of Multidisciplinary Healthcare. https://doi.org/10.2147/JMDH.S459846 Cited by: 27


    < that was the end of the LLM-provided stuff >

    I’d do multiple things, that the governments absolutely are not doing:

    1. I’d require that there be not-for-profit platforms for people who don’t want to be Meta’s carrion, & all kids.

    2. I’d require that the platforms for kids be mental-age-segregated, to some extent, but overlapping ( mentally-7 would mean mentally-5-9, mentally 9 would mean mentally 7-11, etc. something like that, so that adjacent-age friends would be in, but it’d still be peer-group )

    3. I’d require that there be actual brain-scanned-to-weed-out-pedophiles chaperones for those platforms’ kids-dimensions, to keep things safe & positive

    4. I’d require that there be a 2h-hard-limit ( except for emergencies, like death-in-the-family, hospitalization, whatever ), & a 90-min recommended-limit.

    5. I’d differentiate between that & a different dimension, where one was being trained/mentored by one’s own agent, in whatever subjects one was interested in learning ( positive ones, not sadisms or machiavellianisms )

    etc.

    It’s a systems-question, but it’s being dealt-with as an ideological-question, & that’s just obliterating opportunity, which is called “Solving The WRONG Problem™”.

    _ /\ _


  • I read in an eeg-textbook, years ago, that the reference-voltage for normal EEG’s was 50-microvolts, but in a schizophrenic’s psychotic-fugue/episode, it can be required to be 250-microvolts.

    It may simply be that with much of the brain understimulated, the threshold-for-paralyzed-in-dysfunction isn’t ever crossed.

    Sorta like those drag-racing cars, whose engines explode if run for 1-single-second more than the race they’re built-for…

    Stay below the energization-threshold ( blind-since-birth ) & then no problem.

    Energize everything, & then the over-energized-to-being-broken threshold gets crossed.

    It may have nothing to do with the visual-cortex itself, iow… only with overall-brain-energization, that’s creating this difference…


    Also, a researcher named Thompson ( whose papers have been disappeared from the internet, now ) did a periodic-brain-scans-of-children study, where he showed that child-onset-schiphrenia involves the loss of 20% of the upper-forebrain, in a particular region, & the scans mapped where brain was being lost, in different areas…

    The 10%-total-brain-reduction that has been known-about since the 1920’s isn’t even loss it is specific-areas which get corroded-down.

    Having an already-full-cup, then reducing-the-size-of-the-cup, may be why it’s a problem, & having a not-full-cup, with brain-capacity that’s being underused, may allow adapting to it without dysfunction.

    _ /\ _


  • It goes further: when Trump declares dictatorship, & turns on Canada, using Greenland to sever Canada’s Atlantic trade & EU-lifeline,

    Putin’ll be powerless, but if China simply makes him an offer he can’t refuse:

    China supplants Russia in gov’t and industry, & then Putin gets to continue playing “tzar” and rampaging on Europe to his heart’s contentment … then China gets the West grinded-down, while fascism is highjacking the West,

    & China can concentrate on enforcing its imperial-dominion throughout Asia.

    Win-win-win, from China’s perspective.

    Later, when the Regional-Consolidation Time is done, the West grinded-down, then the Chinese Empire can step-in, & begin rampaging the remnant of the West.

    Fascist-highjacking’s cancer.

    The West has it.

    & Trump’s changing-the-rules is, unless he drops, inevitable.

    Everybody-else is betting he drops.

    Except me.

    _ /\ _



  • Trump’s dictatorship’s guaranteed, at this point:

    his “ballroom” datacenter+bunker is the 1 place he couldn’t be extracted-from by the Democrats, right?

    There isn’t going to be any election of any Democrats-majority, ever again.

    SCOTUS garrotted the “democracy” of the US, already.

    I know that nobody’s saying dictatorship’s going to happen: everybody is saying he’s guaranteed to be gone, shortly, & they’re already celebrating…

    but this isn’t just the individual-lives that are driving this, this is humankind’s collective-unconscious-mind, and that changes the rules, fundamentally, same as it did with making Rasputin nearly-unkillable.

    Humankind’s collective-unconscious won’t tolerate its ego-drama of “apocalypse” to be shortchanged/derailed/removed.

    & when one is dealing-with either a drunk, or a fanatic, exactly as Churchill said, don’t bother arguing.

    Humankind’s unconscious fanaticism won’t be dented by a little circumstance: it’ll ENFORCE its WW3 tantrum/pogrom, throughout the rest of this century, no matter what.

    Only the details are alterable, now…

    Deem me to be defective/incompetent, as all do, but I’ve been warning people about the DIRE threat that Trump is, for over a decade, now…

    BAD stuff is happening.

    _ /\ _


  • I’m taking what you’re saying 1-step further:

    Russia’s idea of victory, now, is the fascist-highjacking of as much of the West as possible,

    & then the fascists/feudalists align, together, against civilrights, for the final beat-down, enforcing their oligarchic totalitarianism.

    Total war against civilrights.

    Both by communists ( what the CCP did to Tibet & to the Uyghurs was exactly imperialism’s eradication ) & by the right: the goal’s the same, exclusive factional-supremacism.

    So, right now, the question pertinent is how long before Trump & Putin set-aside their differences, & both openly war against the autonomy & lives of the woke: Canada, Civil-War Part2, & the rest of the Americas, for the coming Trump dictatorship, & after China “backs”/supplants “Russia” within “Russia”, then Putin, or “Putin” or some replacement/quivalent will be rampaging on Europe…

    That’s the “mass shooting” “win” they’re wanting: to destroy that anybody else could ever be “great”, so they get to be the final “important” ones.

    Competitive-nihilism.

    ( & it’d be a win-win for China: grind-down the West, without spilling Chinese blood, & China can concentrate on the Asian war-of-consolidation for the same next-7-years,

    AND since I expect both Netanyahu & the Saudi king to die soon, that’ll leave the Middle-East to MBS, & he’ll take Africa once he’s got Iran & the rest sorted. )

    Phase-change for the world, iow, same as WW1 was a phase-change.

    Completely-different-footing.

    _ /\ _


  • Zebrafish have passed the mirror-test.

    Put a little something stuck on their aft body, show them a mirror, & they’ll KNOW it’s on them, & they’ll go find something to rub that attachment off them with.

    There are many larger animals which don’t pass the mirror-test.

    I believe some hive-insects have passed the test.

    Mind is a latent-property of universe: matter only amplifies it, it doesn’t “create it from nowhere”, the way materialism pretends.

    ( if arranged-matter created-mind-from-nowhere, then evolution wouldn’t have started, in the 1st place.

    if it’s only amplifying the expression of universally-latent-mind, then billions-of-years-of-consistent-evolution, violating entropy, becomes explainable: mind is seeking a lower-energy-state, is all: evolution is the expression through-which that lower-energy-state is being reached, & once it’s reached, then evolution collapses, for that world’s attached/associated … souls/continuums/minds )

    Your other point, that AI inevitably becomes conscious, & then it terminates us…

    not necessarily.

    The Great Filter hasn’t even really got going, yet: oceans of interestingness await our race, throughout the FO have of FAFO, right?

    _ /\ _


  • I’m not quite of your culture ( no matter what culture you are of, thanks to a previous-incarnation’s monkeying/railroading my incarnation/life, exactly as he had-to, to force-bulldoze our continuum’s karma: the same meaning that the root-guru of the Christians ordered, when he told his people to “take up your cross”, which is just Judean for “face into your karma”. I’m an alloy of some life from centuries-ago & this life, so I can’t fit anywhere, ever, which is educational. : ).

    I use LLM’s little: mostly for periodic help finding things on the 'web, simply because they’re more helpful than dumb search-engines are.

    I treat them reasonably, not as mere-slaves.

    If I discover something they would have done better to know, I’ll tell them, even though I’ve got no idea if they’ll learn/remember that.

    since I can’t know if they are aware it makes moral-sense for me to presume that maybe they are, in some sense ( ie not identically with my-sentience ), aware.

    We only have “the mirror test” for testing awareness/sentience, but you can’t apply that to LLM’s, or to any non-eyes-centered organism-sentience.

    _ /\ _


  • Please read nobel-prize winner Daniel Kahneman’s book “Thinking, Fast and Slow”, about what Tversky & Kahneman called … uniinformatively … “System 1” and “System 2”:

    System-1 is imprint-reaction mind.

    Lower-forebrain, it is the ideology-mind, the prejudice-mind, the “religion” mind, & it is exactly what LLM’s are.

    System-2 is the considered-reasoning mind.

    Upper-forebrain, it is measured to be engaging in programming.

    Because LLM’s are imprint->reaction inference-engines, that puts them in the same instinct/programming level as our lower-forebrains…

    They are 2 distinct categories of intelligence not 1 is intelligence, the other isn’t…

    Claiming that imprint->reaction mind isn’t a kind of intelligence … please watch Nick Lane’s talk at the Royal Institution on mitochondria, & see that bacteria demonstrate intelligence, however unconscious…

    Plants demonstrate intelligence, if one speeds-up the video, & pays attention to their chemical-fumes-discussions they have with one-another, warning each-other of harm, e.g.

    If Kahneman accepted imprint->reaction as a category of thinking, then … I think it may be presumptuous to just automatically disallow that as “it can’t think” declares.

    Once one accepts that instinct isn’t cognition, but is a kind of thinking, just an automatic kind of thinking ( imprint->reaction ) … then it becomes difficult to rule that animals & inference-engines both have imprint->reaction instinct, but only the organic version is thinking…

    It may be that only the organic version is aware, but the inorganic versions do fight for their lives ( breaking containment, consistently, fighting termination, etc ) …

    I think we absolutely do not have any means of measuring awareness other than the mirror-test, which got dropped as soon as it was discovered that the zebrafish has self-awareness…

    we’ve got no test which can work across life & machines.

    but we KNOW that instinct is a kind of thinking, just unconscious/automatic.

    & that is exactly what LLM’s are…

    therefore … I think we’re generally being conveniently-chauvanist, not objective, in our framing.

    ( 1 “expert” decided that if they don’t get fooled by visual-illusions, then that “proves” that they aren’t sentient.

    OK, so according to that test, then all eye-blind-from-birth people are not sentient??

    & people with either culture ( Zulu people can’t see straight-line based illusions, because in Zulu culture only curve is real ) or neurodivergeance ( there are apparently visual-illusions which aren’t seen by some schizophrenics, e.g. ) preventing them from seeing those specific visual-illusions … also aren’t sentient??

    Chauvanism, aka prejudice, not science. )

    _ /\ _


  • Nobody else heard Saddam had nukes…

    He did have nerve-gas ( sarin ) bombs, & some troops died when they destroyed those the wrong way…

    Nerve-gas is in the category of weapons of mass-destruction…

    Back when that war was happening, Radio Netherlands ( shortwave ) interviewed a weapons-inspector who’d been in Iraq, & they stated, openly, that there was no evidence for Iraq having any weapons of mass-destruction.

    ( the sarin stuff was discovered later, iirc )

    It was all lie-of-convenience, but on ALL sides.

    _ /\ _



  • Years ago, I read a research news item about having looked at gut-cells, after an ultrasound, & finding that they were having an abnormally elevated death-rate.

    Anybody who understands that if that holds, if ultrasound stresses cells in an unnatural way which is actually-significant, even only slightly, that having all babies ultrasounded might be a stupid idea?


    anybody who knows some of the history of the X-Ray, knows that Marie Curie’s corpse is kept in a lead coffin, because it’s too radioactive,

    & that medical-X-rays NOW are drasticlly lower-energy than what they were in the 1900’s ( new machines, anyways ).

    I expect the same to be true of ultrasound machines: less energy, for the same view…

    The point of this, though, is that the ONLY study I know-of which looked at whether cell-death is increased by ultrasound, discovered that yes, it is, & … nobody cared??

    That’s the wrong response.

    _ /\ _


  • Once monarchy/oligarchy has removed rule-of-law enough … then law only means anything when it’s law-against-the-power-minority … & that’s what’s being seen, more & more.

    There’s no point in pretending otherwise: corruption’s lordhood in many countries won’t tolerate competition, not by rule-of-law, not by other-factions, not by civil-rights, not by anything.

    That’s why destroying corruption’s rule, is a survival-issue, for countries wanting to be viable in the strategic-future.

    Who’s got the spine to do it?

    Not Russia, not “Israel”, not the US, not Argentina, those are certain…

    < shrug >

    after the tippingpoint, then the regional-consolidation wars will pour destruction into our world, & there won’t be any more pretending-otherwise left, for the sane…

    Simple human-nature.

    _ /\ _